Recent attacks on oil tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted maritime traffic, with the number of passing vessels dropping sharply as security risks increase. The narrow passage is a vital artery for global energy trade: roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the strait, connecting major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Qatar to global markets.
The impact was felt immediately. Oil prices surged following the escalation, with analysts warning that a prolonged disruption—or a full closure of the strait—could push prices above $100 per barrel. At the same time, LNG markets reacted strongly, with gas prices rising sharply on the European TTF exchange.
As energy economist Hans van Cleef explains: “If Asian countries receive less LNG, they will start sourcing it elsewhere.”
This shift increases global competition for available gas, driving up prices worldwide as cargoes move to the highest bidder. While the Dutch government currently sees no immediate risk of physical shortages, higher prices could complicate efforts to refill gas storage ahead of winter. The situation also highlights a broader vulnerability: Europe remains dependent on global energy flows and has limited domestic production to fall back on.