The proposed green gas blending mandate is designed to accelerate the decarbonisation of the Dutch energy system, particularly in the built environment. Our study “Bijmengverplichting: Tussen ambitie en uitvoering” shows that it effectiveness depends heavily on the development of domestic green gas production and the way the policy interacts with market dynamics.
In a scenario where domestic production scales up in line with policy ambitions, the mandate can contribute to national climate targets, while the impact on consumer prices remains relatively limited—estimated at around a 5% increase . This outcome assumes that sufficient investments are made in time and that production capacity expands at the required pace.
More constrained production scenarios lead to a different outcome. When domestic supply falls short, energy suppliers rely on imported green gas certificates to meet the obligation. While this still results in emissions reductions at the European level, these reductions are not counted towards Dutch climate targets. At the same time, financial flows shift abroad, as Dutch demand is met by production in other EU member states .
The cost impact for consumers varies accordingly. Limited domestic production, combined with reliance on imports, increases exposure to price developments in the broader European market. Recent discussions in the public domain reflect these dynamics, with concerns about rising gas bills and the affordability of the energy transition, particularly for households with limited flexibility.
The interaction between policy design, market conditions and production capacity ultimately determines whether the blending mandate delivers both climate impact and cost control. Without sufficient domestic supply, the balance shifts towards higher costs and reduced effectiveness at the national level.